Modeling COVID-19 Emergency Income Measures: Policy Implications for Women, Youth and Immigrants in Canada

Funder: Minor Research Grant, Faculty of Liberal Arts & Professional Studies, York University

Principal Investigator: Luann Good Gingrich (Associate Professor, Social Work)

Co-Investigator: Andrew Mitchell (Thinking Cap Consulting)

This project explores income and labour impacts of COVID-19 for women, young people and immigrants, and examines implications for government expenses. It uses Statistics Canada’s Social Policy Simulation Database and Model (a special update to version 28.01 to reflect 2020 circumstances) and Labour Force Survey (LFS) micro-data to explore and compare cost implications and income redistributive effects for specific demographic groups of various emergency cash transfer systems (implemented and proposed), including the Canadian Emergency Response Benefit, Goods and Services Tax Credit, changes to Employment Insurance, and the Canada Child Benefit. We will simulate a wide range of pre- and post-Covid-19 scenarios and trajectories related to earnings, income, and employment for our focal demographic groups: women, youth, and immigrants. Outcomes include producing a research report and policy brief to inform robust, cost-effective and targeted redistributive post-pandemic taxation and cash transfer systems. Research findings will be disseminated to researchers, policy-makers, and community partners through the Global Labour Research Centre website and knowledge mobilization strategies. Find the first three research briefs here.